​NIO minister Fleur Anderson’s view that opinion polls would decide when a border poll is called are ‘ill-considered’ - DUP

The Labour minister has for the first time specified how the government would decide when the time had come to have a vote on whether Northern Ireland should leave the United Kingdom.

However, her comments directly contradict the position laid out by her boss Hilary Benn last year ahead of the general election – and appear to have been rejected by the Northern Ireland Office, who say the responsibility “sits solely” with the Secretary of State.

Mr Benn said that the “political judgement” of the secretary of state is the only means by which a border poll can be called. He also warned about the use of polling to judge public opinion – saying it would encourage attempts to sway the surveys.

However, Fleur Anderson now says that the criteria used by the NIO to decide whether a border poll should be called “would be based on opinion polls”. She made the comments to journalist Joshua Murray from the Agenda NI magazine.

Ms Anderson was also asked if she would campaign in favour of maintaining the Union in the event of a border poll taking place. She said: “That is up to the people of Northern Ireland. We want to support all communities. If it ever came to a vote, we would support the democratic process.”Asked about the position of previous secretaries of states – who have not spoken in detail about the evidence that would be assessed to meet the NIO’s criteria – Ms Anderson is reported as saying: “It would be based on opinion polls.”

The DUP’s deputy leader said the Northern Ireland Office minister’s statement on a border-poll “is ill-considered”.

Michelle McIlveen MLA said: “A border poll is divisive and most people living here just want to make Northern Ireland work. Indeed, support for nationalist pro-border poll parties has remained static since 1998. The combined support for the SDLP and Sinn Fein in 1998 was 39.6% and in 2022 was 38.1%.

“The suggestion by Minister Fleur Anderson that opinion polls could dictate the timing of a border poll is ill-judged. The agreement makes clear that such a decision rests with the secretary of state, based on clear evidence of a likely majority for constitutional change, not some haphazard opinion poll.

“That a minister in His Majesty’s Government seems ambivalent and so uncertain about maintaining the Union is quite disgraceful.

“Last Friday, it was the secretary of state who shared his irrelevant musings that we are ignorant of the law and how Northern Ireland is governed. Today, it’s the minister of state. Collectively, the NIO ministers need better counsel. They must do better.”

Speaking to the BBC last April, when he was shadow Northern Ireland secretary, Hilary Benn said that there is “no evidence at all” that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote to leave the United Kingdom.

Asked on BBC’s The View programme if he would clarify the criteria for calling a vote, the Labour shadow secretary of state said: “No. Because there is a criterion already. It is written in the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement… it says a border poll shall be called by the secretary of State when he or she is of the view that in the event a poll took place a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for a united Ireland”.

Nationalists have argued for ‘clearer’ criteria for how a poll should be called.

But Mr Benn said: "In the end it is a political judgement by the secretary of state. Now the people who wrote the Belfast Good Friday Agreement debated long and hard. And every word, every sentence, every paragraph was carefully considered”.

He said negotiators in 1998 had come to the conclusion of the current system – and argued that “as Keir Starmer said it’s not even on the horizon at the moment because in so far as there are indications of what public opinion is in Northern Ireland there is no evidence at all that there would be a majority. So that is for the future. But it is a political judgement”.

The Labour MP said the alternative is for someone to say “it’s going to be based on five polls, over four months by three reputable companies showing a lead of x percent over what period. You cannot take a decision on that basis because – apart from anything else – people will then focus on ‘well how can we shape the polls that are going to be called upon’.

“It is a political judgement. It is very clear there is one criterion and when the moment comes – if and when and as it comes – a secretary of state whoever it is will know the responsibility that rests upon them”.