Report's claim that costs of 'Irish unity' are affordable are based on 'dubious' assumptions - DUP

A research paper from Dublin City University and Ulster University, has estimated the cost of Northern Ireland becoming part of the Irish state.

It claims other predictions about the cost have been exaggerated because the amount of money spent by the UK subsidising Northern Ireland has been “misinterpreted and misunderstood”.

The paper also suggests that not enough attention has been given to any potential growth if Northern Ireland was back in the EU – and that the province wouldn’t need a subsidy within 5 to 10 years of leaving the UK.

Gavin Robinson says that apart from the fact there is no appetite in Northern Ireland for constitutional change – the report’s “underpinning assumptions” should be take “with a healthy dose of scepticism”.

The DUP leader questioned the “rather dubious assumption” that the UK would continue to pay for public sector pensions in Northern Ireland as well as “write off our share of UK debt”.

Dr Esmond Birnie echoed that view saying the report’s points have all been argued before. The Ulster University senior economist says John Doyle’s report “assumes – but with no convincing evidence – unity per se would lead to an acceleration in NI growth”.

Pointing to the impact of the post-Brexit trading arrangements on Northern Ireland’s economy, Dr Birnie says the report has “failed to engage with the considerable evidence” provided by experience under the Windsor Framework that the process of decoupling Northern Ireland from its current position as a regional economy “imposes sizeable disruption effects”.

The DUP leader says his focus remains on making Northern Ireland a prosperous and thriving place to live, work and raise a family within the United Kingdom.

‘‘There is frequent speculation about a ‘united Ireland’ but what really matters is that over the past twenty-five years, the needle has barely moved in terms of electoral support for nationalist parties.

“The hard reality is that the majority of people want Northern Ireland to work and to remain an integral part of the United Kingdom - and that fact must be front and centre and cannot be wished away by attempts to create the impression that a so-called United Ireland would be better for the people of Northern Ireland.

“Leaving aside the realpolitik, there are reasons to treat this newly published academic paper and some of its underpinning assumptions with a healthy dose of scepticism. It makes the assumption that a future UK Government would agree to cover the costs of public sector pensions and write off Northern Ireland’s share of UK public debt.

“This is an optimistic and speculative assumption in the extreme. In fact, other economists who opt not to minimise the costs of casting Northern Ireland adrift from the rest of United Kingdom have previously estimated that various factors could drive up the overall cost to some €400bn over two decades”, he said.

Mr Robinson also says Northern Ireland is “critically integrated” into the UK economy, and “embarking on the dangerous journey of major constitutional change with its many known and unknown repercussions” would not only be “destabilising but regressive”.

He also said subsuming Northern Ireland into the Irish state would damage reconciliation – and said there is “little evidence to suggest that unionist culture and traditions would be tolerated, let alone respected, in the ‘new Ireland’ Sinn Fein and the SDLP are keen to espouse”.

Report author Professor John Doyle, Vice President for Research in Dublin City University, said that Northern Ireland has “the same set of policies on education, infrastructure, tax and Foreign Direct Investment” – and there is therefore “no obvious reason why Northern Ireland would remain so much poorer” than Irish regions like Munster.

Ulster University Economic Policy Centre's Dr Eoin Magennis said the paper “sets out the ambitious level of growth needed to close gaps in public finances but also the time that will be needed to produce such a necessary convergence.”

“How to do that – through improving educational outcomes in NI or adopting different infrastructural choices – will mean a fresh set of choices needing to be made”, he added.