Shape of deal outlined to DUP members - will it be enough?

Changes to the UK Internal Market Act were among the first aspects of the deal to emerge when the Prime Minister confirmed he stood ready to legislate on Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s ask for the government to both “guarantee and future-proof Northern Ireland’s unfettered access to the UK’s internal market in all scenarios”.

That involves ensuring NI can continue to trade into GB – something that was initially guaranteed after the Protocol was signed. Changes would attempt to ensure that guarantee survived divergence and other changes.

Divergence in regulations between GB and NI could harden the sea border further. The DUP have reportedly secured assurances from the government that UK laws will be screened to stop that happening. However, the proposals wouldn’t bind ministers, and the business secretary Kemi Badenoch and a number of prominent Tories aren’t willing to give up on so-called ‘Brexit freedoms’ – which don’t apply in NI.

New committees and councils will also be part of the deal – such as an East-West council and a UK trade body – along the lines of Intertrade Ireland – something all unionist parties have supported in one form or another. Its purpose would be to promote and strengthen economic bonds inside the UK.

Dr Esmond Birnie from Ulster University says this is “fair enough, but we've had the British-Irish Council since 1999 and the Joint Ministerial Council is meant to coordinate between the three devolved administrations and Westminster”.

Dr Birnie believes that none of this would be necessary in the first place if it wasn’t for the Windsor Framework. He told the News Letter: “I'm all for increasing NI-GB trade but I can't help feeling this body is only necessary because Protocol / Windsor Framework has raised costs on bringing goods into NI from GB. Such a body will, like the current Trader Support Service, cost money to run. All part of the real but hidden costs of Protocol / Windsor Framework”.

The final key part of the deal will be about Northern Ireland’s place in the Union. The Act of Union has become a political battleground between those who don’t want Stormont restored before the Irish Sea border is gone completely – and those who accept that is not going to happen in the foreseeable future.

The DUP’s tests say any new arrangements must ‘fulfil’ the Act of Union – the TUV say it must be restored. There is acknowledgement that can’t be done without the removal of the Windsor Framework – but the party will be seeking assurances on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.

Last night’s events – when Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s efforts to sell the deal to the DUP’s key members were live tweeted by the anti-protocol activist Jamie Bryson – are a massive headache for the party but it remains to be seen what the impact will be.