Waterside expert warns on massive earthquake

World renowned geo-physicist Professor John McCloskey sounded a warning over an earthquake which could potentially kill half a million people. Prof McCloskey, an expert on earthquakes in the Sumatra region of Indonesia, wants preparations to be made so hundreds of thousands of lives can be saved.

His warning comes after an earthquake rocked Indonesia with a magnitude of 7.4 on Saturday May 8.

Prof McCloskey said this was not the massive quake he had been waiting on.

Past work conducted by the geo-physics research team at the University of Ulster included a similar Tsunami warning, which was published only

11 days before the tragic Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004.

The expert said that earth scientists and geo-physicists never use the word 'predict' since that is impossible, but that there are some things they can tell: "The nature of the science is uncertain, so we can't make predictions. We are better at where they will happen, next best at what magnitude they will be and it is next to impossible to tell when they will happen. Sometimes there hasn't been one for quite some time so there is one due - so you know there is going to be a big earthquake. We know there will be a big one."

He wants more communication between scientists like himself and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) such as Oxfam and Trocaire who carry out life saving work on the ground. He believes the knowledge he and his colleagues have would be invaluable for making preparations and saving lives. If warning can be given that an earthquake or tsunami is coming, preparations can be made by NGOs and the UN.

Prof McCloskey points to the fact that in rich countries such as the USA and Japan, earthquakes of a magnitude similar to that which recently struck Haiti do not kill anywhere close to the massive 200,000 people who were killed there.

He said: "It is the poverty which kills people."

He added that more communication was vital: "We need to work out better ways of translating the graphs and formulas into simple messages that can be used by people working on the ground, doing a fantastic job.

"We know this is coming, we just don't know how much time we have until it does. I have run all the figures and run about 125 simulations of possible earthquakes and Tsunamis. In about a quarter of those there could be half a million people killed. We hope that preparations can be made to avoid this, which is a worst case scenario.

"They (NGOs) are doing a great job, helping the poorest people and they are keen to get this information from us. It sounds easy and it sounds obvious but it is not that easy, because we are dealing with uncertainties.

"We have established lines of communication with Concern, an international charity based in Ireland, and that is developing into something really important. Dominic Crowley, from Concern who works out of Dublin is like a boss on the ground. Whenever an earthquake happens he is able to ring me up and ask about aftershocks.

"I am delighted because it means my knowledge might be put to good use to save lives."