Senior economist says new data shows Windsor Framework is growing all-Ireland economy and 'probably' diverting trade

Dr Esmond Birnie, Senior Economist at Ulster University, says that new data released by the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) would have been useful ahead of Tuesday’s debate in the Assembly, where MLAs decided to continue with the Windsor Framework for the next four years.

The vote saw every elected unionist representative voting against the continuation of the UK-EU deal, citing concerns about the disruption to the UK internal market and Northern Irish businesses. It was passed with Sinn Fein, Alliance and SDLP backing.

Dr Birnie says NISRA’s latest data “provides further evidence that the NI economy is becoming more trade integrated with the Republic of Ireland (RoI).

“Indeed, trade diversion is probably occurring: North-South trade growing at very rapid rates at the expense of what previously was an inflow of goods from GB. All this is indicative of the consequences of the Protocol and the Windsor Framework”.

The Ulster University economist, who has been analysing the impact of the post-Brexit trade arrangements since they came into effect, highlighted the key areas where he believes they are impacting the local economy.

“NI’s exports of goods increased from £8bn to £11.7bn, a 46.5% increase. This might sound quite impressive but much of that growth was actually one of price inflation. The volume of goods sold beyond the UK increased by only 8.4% over that 12 year period”, he said.

Dr Birnie argues that whilst the current size of the so-called “all-island” economy remains small it has been growing.

“In 2023 NI sold goods and services worth £8.7bn to RoI and £17.1bn worth to GB. The total sales to the RoI represented 8.9% of all sales by NI. So, more than 90% of the NI economy sells to other parts of the world other than RoI (in 2023 2.7% of total sales went to the EU beyond the RoI). True, the RoI share of total sales has been growing over time. In 2011 it was 5.4% and in 2022 8.5%”, he said.